Semi-autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market Share, Growth [2032]

Report Description

Semi-autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market Outlook 2032

The global semi-autonomous & autonomous bus market size was USD 2.5 Billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 3.2 Billion by 2032, expanding at a CAGR of 17% during 2024–2032. The semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market has been steadily growing, driven by technological advancements, increasing demand for safer and efficient transportation, and efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

A semi-autonomous or autonomous bus independently manages all safety operations by continuously monitoring driving conditions in its vicinity. The semi-autonomous bus operates over extended distances with minimal human intervention, offering drivers ample transition time to regain control if necessary. Moreover, these buses contribute to alleviating traffic congestion. The widespread adoption of autonomous buses faces regulatory hurdles related to safety standards, liability issues, and infrastructure requirements. Governments are working to establish guidelines and regulations to address these concerns.

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One of the primary drivers for autonomous buses is safety. With features like collision avoidance systems, adaptive cruise control, and pedestrian detection, these buses aim to reduce accidents and improve road safety. Governments and municipalities are increasingly focused on reducing carbon emissions and improving air quality. Electric and hybrid autonomous buses offer a solution by providing cleaner transportation options.

Impact of AI on Semi-autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market

The impact of AI on the semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market is influencing various aspects of technology development, safety, efficiency, and market adoption. AI algorithms enable buses to perceive and interpret their surroundings using sensor data such as cameras, lidar, automotive radar, and GPS. Through machine learning and deep learning techniques, buses identify objects, detect obstacles, and anticipate potential hazards on the road, allowing for reliable decision-making in real-time. AI powered systems facilitate the implementation of advanced safety features in semi-autonomous and autonomous buses. These features include collision avoidance, lane-keeping assistance, automatic emergency braking, and pedestrian detection, which help mitigate risks and improve overall road safety.

Semi-autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market Dynamics

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Major Drivers

Increasing demand for accessible transportation options for elderly and mobility-impaired individuals as populations age. Semi-autonomous and autonomous buses offer accessible features such as low-floor boarding, wheelchair ramps, and automated assistance systems, making public transportation inclusive and accessible to all members of society. The shift towards sustainable transportation solutions drives demand for electric and hybrid semi-autonomous and autonomous buses. These vehicles produce fewer emissions compared to traditional diesel-powered buses, contributing to environmental conservation and air quality improvement efforts. The demand for eco-friendly transportation options motivates the adoption of autonomous bus technology.

Existing Restraints

The development and deployment of semi-autonomous and autonomous buses require significant investments in research, development, testing, and infrastructure. High initial costs associated with autonomous technology, sensors, and infrastructure deter potential buyers or limit the scalability of autonomous bus fleets. Determining liability in the event of accidents involving autonomous buses are complex, involving questions of responsibility between manufacturers, operators, and other parties. Uncertainty surrounding liability and insurance coverage deter investment in autonomous bus fleets or increase insurance costs, acting as a restraint on market growth.

Emerging Opportunities

Growing demand for efficient and sustainable urban mobility solutions as cities grapple with increasing traffic congestion and pollution. Semi-autonomous and autonomous buses offer a viable alternative to traditional modes of transportation, providing high-capacity, eco-friendly transit options that help alleviate congestion and reduce emissions. Autonomous buses are integrated with smart city infrastructure, enabling seamless communication with traffic signals, infrastructure sensors, and other vehicles. This integration facilitates traffic management, congestion mitigation, and optimized routing, leading to efficient and responsive transportation systems.

Scope of the Semi-autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market Report

 The market report includes an assessment of the market trends, segments, and regional markets. Overview and dynamics are included in the report.
 

Regional Outlook

In terms of region, semi-autonomous & autonomous bus market is classified as Asia Pacific, North America, Latin America, Europe, and Middle East & Africa.

Europe held a large share of the global market in 2023, driven by various factors including technological advancements, regulatory initiatives, and the need for sustainable transportation solutions. European governments are actively supporting the development and deployment of autonomous buses through regulatory frameworks, funding programs, and incentives. Initiatives such as Horizon Europe and the European Green Deal provide funding opportunities for research and innovation in autonomous transportation technologies.

Asia Pacific is anticipated to experience substantial growth at a significant rate during the forecast period. The region is home to some of the world's fastest-growing cities, facing challenges related to congestion, pollution, and accessibility. Semi-autonomous and autonomous buses offer a solution to these challenges by providing efficient, high-capacity transportation options that help alleviate congestion and reduce emissions in urban areas. There is a strong focus on electric and green transportation solutions in the region with growing environmental concerns. Electric and hybrid autonomous buses are gaining popularity as they offer clean and environmentally friendly alternatives to traditional diesel-powered vehicles, aligning with sustainability goals of many countries in the region.

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Semi-autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market Segment Analysis

Component Analysis

Based on component, the semi-autonomous & autonomous bus market is divided into camera, lidar, radar, ultrasonic sensor, and others.

The lidar segment is expected to register a considerable CAGR in the coming years, providing accurate and high-resolution 3D mapping of the surrounding environment. They emit laser pulses and measure the time it takes for the pulses to bounce back from objects, thus creating detailed maps of the surroundings. Lidar sensors use laser pulses to measure distances to objects and create detailed 3D maps of the environment. Lidar provides high-resolution data on the shape, size, and distance of surrounding objects, enabling accurate localization, obstacle detection, and mapping for autonomous navigation. It is particularly effective in low-light conditions and at longer ranges compared to cameras.

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ADAS Feature Analysis

Based on ADAS feature, the semi-autonomous & autonomous bus market is fragmented into lane assist, crash warning system, adaptive cruise control, smart park assist, cross traffic alert, automatic emergency braking, and others.

The automation emergency braking segment held a major share of the market in 2023, designed to prevent or mitigate collisions by automatically applying the brakes if the system detects an imminent collision with a vehicle, pedestrian, cyclist, or obstacle in the path. AEB systems typically use sensors such as radar, lidar, or cameras to continuously monitor the surroundings and assess potential collision risks. If the system determines that a collision is imminent and the driver does not take corrective action, it intervenes by applying the brakes to reduce the severity of the impact or avoid it altogether.

Automation Level Analysis

Based on automation level, the semi-autonomous & autonomous bus market is segregated into level 1, level 2, and level 3.

The level 2 segment is projected to hold a large market share during the assessment period. Level 2 automation represents a significant advancement in vehicle automation, offering a higher degree of autonomy compared to lower levels while still requiring the driver to remain engaged and responsible for monitoring the environment and intervening if necessary. Level 2 automation incorporates advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) that provide capabilities such as adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping assistance, and automatic emergency braking. These systems assist the driver with tasks such as maintaining a safe following distance, staying within lane markings, and reacting to potential hazards on the road.

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Propulsion Analysis

On the basis of propulsion, the semi-autonomous & autonomous bus market is classified as ice, and electric.

The electric segment is anticipated to expand at a significant growth rate during the forecast period. Electric buses contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality, aligning with global efforts to combat climate change and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. As environmental regulations are stricter and cities prioritize sustainability, the demand for electric buses is on the rise. Electric buses offer lower operating costs compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) buses due to lower fuel costs, reduced maintenance requirements, and fewer moving parts. While the initial cost of electric buses are higher, the total cost of ownership over the vehicle's lifetime is often lower, making them economically viable in the long run.

Application Analysis

On the basis of application, the semi-autonomous & autonomous bus market is bifurcated into transportation, logistics, military & defense.

The public transit segment held a major share of the market in 2023. Public transit agencies are increasingly exploring semi-autonomous and autonomous buses as a solution to improve urban mobility, reduce congestion, and enhance the overall passenger experience. Autonomous buses have the potential to complement existing public transit networks by offering efficient, reliable, and cost-effective transportation options for commuters and residents in urban and suburban areas.